An economic evaluation of alternative methods to manage fire blight in apple production

Authors: RICKARD, BRADLEY - Cornell University; ACIMOVIC, SRDAN - Virginia Polytechnic Institution & State University; Fazio, Gennaro; SILVER, CASEY - McKinsey And Company

Submitted to: New York State Fruit Quarterly
Publication Type: Trade Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 3/1/2023
Publication Date: 4/1/2023
Citation: Rickard, B.J., Acimovic, S.G., Fazio, G., Silver, C. 2023. An economic evaluation of alternative methods to manage fire blight in apple production . New York State Fruit Quarterly. Vol 97, Issue 3 pgs296-431. https://apsjournals.apsnet.org/doi/epdf/10.1094/PDIS-07-12-0638-RE.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1094/PDIS-07-12-0638-RE

Interpretive Summary: Na

Technical Abstract: Fire blight outbreaks have become more common and more severe in apple orchards in New York in recent years. The pathogen has created significant economic distress for apple producers in 2012 in the Hudson Valley, in 2016 in the Champlain Lake Valley and Western New York, and then again in 2020 in Western New York. Damage estimates to producers from the 2016 epidemic exceed $16 million in Champlain Lake Valley. These and sudden fire blight outbreaks can cause over 50% apple tree losses in young, recently planted orchards. The most severe symptom behind tree death is girdling fire blight canker on susceptible rootstock. Scientists and growers are considering a range of strategies to manage the pathogen, and the purpose of this research is to outline the economic implications of adopting a few alternative strategies. We provide results for five scenarios to manage fire blight where each scenario is based on the adoption of a different strategy. Scenarios model the outcomes of using individual tools (e.g., Geneva rootstocks alone) and combinations of tools (e.g., Geneva rootstocks plus post-infection spray programs). Our research examines the economic implications associated with different strategies to manage and/or control the pathogen. The analysis also considers the efficacy of the strategies across different levels of incidence of fire blight (i.e., average intensity rate of infection in the tree canopy). Results show that even with low levels of fire blight incidence, there are clear economic benefits from adopting G rootstocks relative to M rootstocks. For the case with 10% fire blight incidence, the adoption of G rootstocks leads to a NPV of $99.830.85 compared to $97,530.85 with M rootstocks; this is equivalent to an additional $2300 per acre over the 15 year period. Furthermore, coupling the spray program with the G rootstocks increases the NPV to $100,738.48 (an increase of $3207.63 per acre compared to the M rootstocks) with 10% fire blight incidence. Additional results that model the effects with 25% and 40% incidence of fire blight showcase even stronger evidence on the economic case to adopt G rootstocks (coupled with the spray applications based on the fire blight prediction models). Although the focus of this research is to examine the economic implications of managing fire blight in apple production, our modeling framework could be augmented to consider the economic consequences of pathogens that impact production of other perennial fruit crops, and strategies that could be employed to manage such pathogens.