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ARS Home » Plains Area » Lincoln, Nebraska » Wheat, Sorghum and Forage Research » Research » Publications at this Location » Publication #403844
Research Project: Improved Winter Wheat Disease Resistance and Quality through Molecular Biology, Genetics, and Breeding

Location: Wheat, Sorghum and Forage Research

Title: Genetic improvement of winter wheat grain yield in the northern Great Plains of North America, 1959-2021

Author
item Boehm Jr, Jeffrey
item Masterson, Steven - Steve
item Palmer, Nathan - Nate
item Cai, Xiwen
item MIGUEZ, FERNANDO - Iowa State University

Submitted to: Crop Science
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 7/24/2023
Publication Date: 10/16/2023
Citation: Boehm Jr, J.D., Masterson, S.D., Palmer, N.A., Cai, X., Miguez, F. 2023. Genetic improvement of winter wheat grain yield in the northern Great Plains of North America, 1959-2021. Crop Science. 63:3236-3249.

Interpretive Summary: Wheat is a major staple crop that provides ~20% of the world’s caloric and protein intake. The global consumption of wheat is expected to concomitantly rise along with population growth. Hence, increasing crops yields are a major objective for global food security. To assess whether technological advances in agriculture paired with modern plant breeding efforts have increased wheat productivity over past levels, Northern Regional Performance Nursery yield data from 1959 to 2021 were evaluated to estimate the genetic gain for grain yield. Although the genetic improvement of grain yield increased by 0.70% in relative yield over this timeframe, progress reversed course and slowed -0.95% over the past 13 years. Modelling indicated that yield increases due to genetic attributes plateaued around 2008, which is a concerning yield trend. It remains to be seen whether new technologies paired with wheat breeding efforts will be able to shift the current trajectory for northern plains wheat varieties to maintain food security.

Technical Abstract: Plant breeding progress is often based on assessments of genetic gain, a measure of year-on-year improvement of newly developed varieties for important traits of interest. Herein, we present data from the USDA-coordinated hard winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) Northern regional performance nursery (NRPN) collected from 1959 to 2021 for grain yield, grain volume weight, days-to-heading, and plant height and use it to estimate absolute and relative rates of genetic gain (loss) of the control cultivar ‘Kharkof’ for winter wheats adapted to the Northern Great Plains of North America. Regression analyses revealed significant relative grain yield increases of 0.67% Kharkof yr-1 or 39.2 kg ha-1 yr-1 for the NRPN over the 62 yr period. From 2008 to 2021, however, negative linear relationships were observed for relative grain yield for all NRPN entries and the five highest yielding NRPN lines each year, with genetic grain yield losses estimated at -0.95 and -0.79% Kharkof yr-1, respectively. Surprisingly, genetic progress for grain yield in the NRPN was limited to just 8.9 kg ha-1 yr-1 over the past 13 yr. Moreover, linear-plateau models significantly (P < 0.0001) fit all relative and absolute yield datasets from 1959 to 2021, with yield plateaus beginning by 2008 for all groups. These results support that winter wheats adapted to the Northern Great Plains have reached an upper yield plateau and could be nearing a yield potential ceiling due to global warming or other combined abiotic and biotic environmental stressors that are straining the biophysical limits of the crop.