An economic analysis on the transition to dryland production in deficit-irrigated cropping systems of the Texas High Plains

Authors: MITCHELL-MCCALLISTER, DONNA - Texas Tech University; MCCULLOUGH, REBECCA - Texas Tech University; JOHNSON, PHILLIP - Texas Tech University; WILLIAMS, RYAN - Texas Tech University

Submitted to: Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 2/4/2021
Publication Date: 3/23/2021
Citation: Mitchell-McCallister, D., McCullough, R., Johnson, P., Williams, R.B. 2021. An economic analysis on the transition to dryland production in deficit-irrigated cropping systems of the Texas High Plains. Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems. 5. Article 531604. https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2021.531601.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2021.531601

Interpretive Summary: Groundwater availability from the Ogallala Aquifer for irrigation is decreasing. Farmers need information on groundwater withdrawal rates and economic returns for various scenarios of land management under a center pivot irrigation system. Working in a project funded by the USDA ARS Ogallala Aquifer Program, economists from Texas Tech University and Texas A&M AgriLife conducted a study using hydrologic, agronomic, and economic methods to evaluate various management strategies. They evaluated how changing the irrigated acreage for different crops grown under a single center pivot could better manage the return from use of groundwater resources. Irrigating corn or cotton on one-quarter of the land underneath a 130-acre center pivot could sustain groundwater availability and net farm returns for the next 50 years. Farmers who continued to irrigate the full 130 acres would have to progressively decrease the number of irrigated acres after 10 years due to decreased groundwater availability. Results indicated that growers could approach a sustainable cropping system by switching from fully irrigated center pivots to irrigating half and quarter pivots. Sustainability was evaluated by net farm returns and continued availability of groundwater into the future.

Technical Abstract: The objective of this analysis was to integrate hydrologic, agronomic, and economic methods to evaluate various management strategies by changing crop acreage to better manage the declining resources of the Ogallala aquifer. A non-linear optimization model was used to estimate the optimal water use, crop mix, crop yield, and net returns over a 50 year period under dryland and deficit irrigation scenarios in the Texas High Plains. Results indicated that growers could maintain profitability by switching from fully irrigated center pivots to irrigating ½ and ¼ pivots.