Increasing large wildfire in the Eastern United States

Authors: DONOVAN, VICTORIA - Southwest Florida Research And Education Center; CRANDALL, RAELENE - University Of Florida; FILL, JENNIFER - University Of Florida; Wonkka, Carissa

Submitted to: Geophysical Research Letters
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 11/15/2023
Publication Date: 12/18/2023
Citation: Donovan, V.M., Crandall, R., Fill, J., Wonkka, C.L. 2023. Increasing large wildfire in the Eastern United States. Geophysical Research Letters. 50(24):e2023GL107051. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL107051.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL107051

Interpretive Summary: Wildfires are increasing across numerous regions of the globe. While the west has remained a primary focus of wildfire research and resources in the U.S., recent signals suggest that wildfire is increasing in the east. We conduct an assessment of large wildfire characteristics over a ~40-year period across the Eastern Forests of the U.S. to quantify geographic patterns in large-wildfire patterns. We find that large wildfire size, occurrence, number, and total acres burned are increasing in the southern and eastern Eastern Temperate Forests, while they are declining in the north. Large wildfire number increased by over 2000% in some locations. Shifts in wildfire season occurred across the eastern U.S. We show increasing large wildfire risk in some of the most populated regions of the U.S.

Technical Abstract: Large wildfires are increasing across numerous regions of the globe. While the west has remained a primary focus of wildfire research and resources in the U.S., recent signals suggest that wildfire is increasing in the east. We conduct an in-depth assessment of large (>200 ha) wildfire regime characteristics (wildfire size, number, total hectares burn, seasonality, annual probability of occurrence, and ignition source) over a ~40-year period across the Eastern Temperate Forests of the U.S. to quantify geographic patterns in large-wildfire regime and identify changing spatio-temporal large wildfire patterns. We find that large wildfire size, occurrence, number, and total hectares burned are increasing in the southern and eastern Eastern Temperate Forests, while they are declining in the north. Large wildfire number increased by over 2000% in some locations. Shifts in wildfire seasonality occurred across the eastern U.S. We show increasing large wildfire risk in some of the most populated regions of the U.S.