Climate change impacts on insect pests for high value speciality crops in California

Authors: JHA, PRAKASH KUMAR - University Of California Agriculture And Natural Resources (UCANR); ZHANG, NING - University Of California, Davis; RIJAL, JHALENDRA - University Of California Agriculture And Natural Resources (UCANR); PARKER, LAUREN - University Of California, Davis; Ostoja, Steven; PATHAK, TAPAN - University Of California Agriculture And Natural Resources (UCANR)

Submitted to: Science of the Total Environment
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 10/3/2023
Publication Date: 1/1/2024
Citation: Jha, P., Zhang, N., Rijal, J.P., Parker, L.E., Ostoja, S.M., Pathak, T.B. 2024. Climate change impacts on insect pests for high value speciality crops in California. Science of the Total Environment. 906. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167605.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167605

Interpretive Summary: California is a global leader in production and supply of walnuts, almonds and peaches, and these crops have an important contribution to the California’s agricultural economy. Damages to these crops from pests, mainly from Codling moth (Cydia pomonella L.), Peach twig borer (Anarsia lineatella) and Oriental fruit moth (Grapholita molesta), are still high, despite the improvement in pest management activities. Given that temperature increase can directly impact the rate of growth and development of these pests, it is important to understand to what extent dynamics of these pests will change in future in California. e found that biofix of these pests are expected to shift earlier by up to 24 days, and length of generations is expected to be shortened by up to 19 days, and up to 1.8 extra generations of these pests can be added by the end of the century depending on the scenario. Results from this work would enable industry to prioritize development of varieties that are resistant to insect borne diseases. Growers and researchers can take proactive actions to minimize future risks associated with these damaging pests. This work can be scalable to other pests and regions to understand regional dynamics of damaging agricultural pests under climate change.

Technical Abstract: California leads the world in production and supply of specialty crops, including walnuts, almonds and peaches. These crops have an important contribution to national food security as well as the California's agricultural economy. Damage to these crops from pests, mainly from Codling moth, Peach twig borer, and Oriental fruit moth, are still high and may get worse with climate change. Given that temperature increase can directly impact the rate of growth and development of these pests, it is important to understand to what extent dynamics of these pests will change in future in California. This study found that these pests are expected to become more active earlier in the season by up to 24 days, and length of generations is expected to be shortened by up to 19 days, and up to 1.8 extra generations of these pests can be added by the end of the century depending on the scenario. This work can enable industry to prioritize development of varieties that are resistant to insect borne diseases. Growers and researchers can take informed choices to reduce future risks associated with damaging pests. And finally work like this can be scalable to other pests and regions to understand regional dynamics of damaging agricultural pests in an era of climate change.