Potential landscapes for conservation of the black-tailed prairie dog ecosystem

Authors: DAVIDSON, A - Colorado State University; THIESEN, BRUM - The Nature Conservancy; HOUTS, M - University Of Kansas; MENEFEE, M - Colorado State University; WILLIAMSON, M - Boise State University; STERLING-KRANK, L - Prairie Dog Coalition; VAN PELT, W - Western Association Of Fish And Wildlife Agencies; Augustine, David

Submitted to: Diversity and Distributions
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 10/23/2024
Publication Date: N/A
Citation: N/A

Interpretive Summary: Conservation planning is a powerful tool for focusing conservation priorities and limited resources. We used a mapping analysis implemented using conservation planning software (Zonation) identify potential landscapes where the conservation of the black-tailed prairie dog (BTPD) ecosystem may be most effective within North America’s Central Grasslands. Our analysis incorporated ecological habitat suitability, landscape-scale patterns of habitat distribution, social factors, and modelling of changing climate and land use to maximize long-term conservation potential. The landscapes we identified with high conservation potential (HCP) (top 30% range-wide) represented 22% of the historical distribution of black-tailed prairie dogs and remained strongholds under projected climate change. We provide a suite of HCP area scenarios to help inform different conservation and management interests, including those that consider projected climate change. We also conducted analyses at the scale of each individual state to help focus conservation efforts at the state level, and to support revisions of State Wildlife Action Plans. The maps we generated can be incorporated into other large-scale, conservation planning efforts for other types of species (e.g. prairie grouse, grassland songbirds, pollinators) being developed for the Central Grasslands of North America.

Technical Abstract: Conservation planning is a powerful tool for focusing conservation priorities and limited resources. We used a structured decision analysis approach to identify potential landscapes for the conservation of the black-tailed prairie dog (BTPD) ecosystem across North America’s Central Grasslands. Our analysis incorporated ecological, political, and social factors, along with changing climate and land use to maximize long-term conservation potential. The landscapes we identified with high conservation potential (HCP) (top 30% range-wide) represented 22% of the historical distribution of black-tailed prairie dogs and remained strongholds under projected climate change. We provide a suite of HCP area scenarios to help inform different conservation and management interests, including those that consider projected climate change and jurisdictional (state-level) boundaries. Our findings highlight the large conservation potential for BTPDs and associated species, and the maps we generated can be incorporated into other large-scale, multi-species conservation planning efforts being developed for the Central Grasslands of North America.