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ARS Home » Plains Area » El Reno, Oklahoma » Oklahoma and Central Plains Agricultural Research Center » Agroclimate and Hydraulics Research Unit » Research » Publications at this Location » Publication #412617
Research Project: Development of a Monitoring Network, Engineering Tools, and Guidelines for the Design, Analysis, and Rehabilitation of Embankment Dams, Hydraulic Structures, and Channels

Location: Agroclimate and Hydraulics Research Unit

Title: Dam overtopping forecasts for use by managers and agriculturists

Author
item Livsey, Daniel
item Hunt, Sherry
item QIAO, LEI - Oklahoma State University
item Wise, Jarrett

Submitted to: Meeting Abstract
Publication Type: Abstract Only
Publication Acceptance Date: 2/2/2024
Publication Date: 9/22/2024
Citation: Livsey, D.N., Hunt, S., Qiao, L., Wise, J.L. 2024. Dam overtopping forecasts for use by managers and agriculturists. Meeting Abstract. ASDSO Annual Meeting, Sept 22-26, 2024, Denver, CO.

Interpretive Summary:

Technical Abstract: Dam overtopping and subsequent erosion of the dam face is the leading cause of earthen dam failures in the United States. Readily available forecast tools to alert managers and agriculturists of potential for dam overtopping in real time would allow workers to evacuate people and animals prior to dam overtopping and potential dam failure. In this work, nonstationary machine learning algorithms are utilized to forecast reservoir levels from distributed meteorological stations across Oklahoma. Meteorological station data is used because sensors are distributed broadly across the United States. Reservoir level forecasts are provided with uncertainty to provide workers a better understanding of risk to dam overtopping in real-time. Results are presented from small (10,000 ac-ft), medium (100,000 ac-ft), and large (1,000,000 ac-ft) reservoirs and limitations of the approach are discussed. USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer.