Skip to main content
ARS Home » Plains Area » Bushland, Texas » Conservation and Production Research Laboratory » Soil and Water Management Research » Research » Publications at this Location » Publication #416982
Research Project: Dryland and Irrigated Crop Management Under Limited Water Availability and Drought

Location: Soil and Water Management Research

Title: Spatiotemporal economic analysis of corn and wheat production in the Texas High Plains

Author
item NAHER, AMINUN - West Texas A & M University
item ALMAS, LAL - West Texas A & M University
item GUERRERO, BRIDGET - West Texas A & M University
item SHAHEEN, SANIA - West Texas A & M University

Submitted to: Water
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 10/4/2023
Publication Date: 10/12/2023
Citation: Naher, A., Almas, L., Guerrero, B., Shaheen, S. 2023. Spatiotemporal economic analysis of corn and wheat production in the Texas High Plains. Water. 15(20). Article 3553. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15203553.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/w15203553

Interpretive Summary: In response to aquifer declines and to changing climate that includes rising temperatures and droughty conditions, acreage devoted to corn and wheat in the Texas High Plains (THP) has been changing. Researchers from West Texas A&M University supported by the USDA ARS Ogallala Aquifer Program studied how acreages have changed from 1978 to 2017 and where in the THP the changes have occurred. Acreages of both wheat and corn declined over this period in concert with declines in water available from the Ogallala aquifer, and acreages became concentrated in counties where water was more available. Wheat acreage became mainly concentrated in the northern part of the Texas High Plains, to some extent in response to increasing wintertime temperatures that cause wheat yield reduction in more southerly areas. Declining production may be stabilized if policy makers promote and support non-irrigated crops so that reliance on the aquifer is reduced.

Technical Abstract: The aim of this study is to visualize the historical changes in wheat and corn cropping patterns in the Texas High Plains from the perspective of geographical concentration and spatial autocorrelation. Historical county-level agricultural census data were collected from the United States Department of Agriculture and the National Agricultural Statistics Service from 1978 to 2017. Exploratory data analysis techniques were employed to examine the geographical concentration and spatial dependence of crop production among nearby locations. The results of temporal changes indicate that the harvested acres of corn and wheat tended to decrease throughout the study period. Total and irrigated harvested corn and wheat acreages were concentrated in a smaller number of counties over time while wheat production was mainly concentrated in the northern part of the region. The Moran’s I test statistic for total and irrigated areas of cropland suggest that there was spatial dependence among the neighboring counties in crop production in this region. In summary, there was a spatiotemporal change in cropping patterns in the Texas High Plains over the study period. Based on the results of the spatiotemporal changes in cropping patterns in the Texas High Plains, policy makers should promote and support non-irrigated varieties of crops in order to decrease the dependence on irrigation water from the Ogallala Aquifer.