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ARS Home » Plains Area » Manhattan, Kansas » Center for Grain and Animal Health Research » Hard Winter Wheat Genetics Research » Research » Publications at this Location » Publication #417785
Research Project: Mobilizing Genetic Resources and Technologies for Breeding Profitable, Resilient, and Nutritious Hard Winter Wheat

Location: Hard Winter Wheat Genetics Research

Title: An unprecedented fall drought drives Dust-Bowl-like losses associated with La Niña events in US wheat production

Author
item ZHANG, LINA - Kansas State University
item Bai, Guihua
item KIRKHAM, M - Kansas State University
item NIELSEN-GAMMON, JOHN - Texas A&M University
item AVENSON, THOMAS - Vindara, Inc
item ZHAO, HAIDONG - Kansas State University
item WAN, NENGHAN - Kansas State University
item LOLLATO, ROMULO - Kansas State University
item SHARDA, VAISHALI - Kansas State University
item Ashworth, Amanda
item Gowda, Prasanna
item LIN, XIAOMAO - Kansas State University

Submitted to: Science Advances
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 6/24/2024
Publication Date: 7/31/2024
Citation: Zhang, L., Bai, G., Kirkham, M.B., Nielsen-Gammon, J.W., Avenson, T.J., Zhao, H., Wan, N., Lollato, R., Sharda, V., Ashworth, A.J., Gowda, P.H., Lin, X. 2024. An unprecedented fall drought drives Dust-Bowl-like losses associated with La Niña events in US wheat production. Science Advances. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.ado6864.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.ado6864

Interpretive Summary: The US wheat heartland experienced severe precipitation shortfalls in the 2022-2023 growing season, resulting in a 37% decline in winter wheat production. Machine learning pinpointed that significant crop abandonment within this decline, evocative of the Dust Bowl era, was caused by an unprecedented fall drought. This study addresses the dual challenges of yield reduction and abandonment in sustaining wheat production through adaptive strategies under future increased climate extreme events.

Technical Abstract: Unprecedented precipitation deficits in the 2022-2023 growing season across the primary 28 wheat-producing region in the US caused delays in winter wheat emergence and poor crop 29 growth. Employing an integrated approach, we quantitatively unraveled a 37% reduction in 30 wheat production as being attributable to both per-harvested-acre yield loss and severe crop 31 abandonment, reminiscent of the Dust Bowl years in the 1930s. We used random forest 32 machine learning and game theory analytics to show that the main driver of yield loss was 33 spring drought, whereas fall drought dominated abandonment rates. Furthermore, results 34 revealed, across the US winter wheat belt, the La Niña phase of the El Niño Southern 35 Oscillation, significantly increased abandonment rates compared to the El Niño phase. 36 These findings underscore the necessity of simultaneously addressing crop abandonment 37 and yield decline to stabilize wheat production amid extreme climatic conditions and 38 provide a holistic understanding of global-scale ENSO dynamics on wheat production.