Skip to main content
ARS Home » Research » Publications at this Location » Publication #57346
Title: A SIMULATION OF PHENOLOGY, GROWTH, CARBON DIOXIDE EXCHANGE AND YIELDS UNDERAMBIENT ATMOSPHERE AND FREE-AIR CARBON DIOXIDE ENRICHMENT (FACE) MARICOPA, AZ, FOR WHEAT

Author
item KARTSCHALL T - PIK GERMANY
item GROSSMAN S - PIK GERMANY
item PINTER JR P J - 5344-20-10
item GARCIA R L - LI-COR
item KIMBALL B A - 5344-20-10
item WALL G W - 5344-20-10
item HUNSAKER D J - 5344-20-10
item LAMORTE R L - 5344-20-10

Submitted to: Journal of Biogeography
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 1/7/1995
Publication Date: N/A
Citation: N/A

Interpretive Summary: In order to predict the consequences of present and future global environmental changes on the security of world food production and on future irrigation requirements, efforts are underway to develop the capability to predict the growth, yield, and water use of major food crops. These global changes especially include the increasing concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) which is expected to double sometime during the next century. Climate modelers have predicted that the elevated CO2 will cause the earth to warm and that precipitation patterns will change. Elevated CO2 is also known to alter the growth of plants and may affect their water requirements. Accordingly, a computer model called DEMETER was developed, which is capable of predicting the growth of a wheat crop and its consumption of water. This paper describes a specific validation test of the model comparing its predictions with actual data from a free-air CO2- enrichment experiment on wheat at CO2 concentrations of 550 ppm and present-day ambient of about 370 ppm. The results showed that the model could simulate the growth and development of the crop reasonably well. Consistent with the data, it appears that future wheat productivity will increase due to the increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration, provided the climate does not change too adversely. The elevated CO2 stimulated growth more under dry conditions than wet, which would help compensate if future climates were drier. This work should help future growers develop optimum management strategies and, of course, should ultimately benefit all future food consumers.

Technical Abstract: The impact of increased atmospheric CO2 concentration on the growth and productivity of field grown wheat has been evaluated. Meteorological and soil information from this study were used to validate a model (DEMETER) for simulation of vegetation response to climate change rate, growth and yield for the treatment conditions of the experiment show a reasonable accordance with the experimental data