Author
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Hahn, George |
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Submitted to: Proceedings of the Brazilian Congress of Biometeorology
Publication Type: Proceedings Publication Acceptance Date: 1/29/1996 Publication Date: N/A Citation: N/A Interpretive Summary: The potential direct effects of global warming on livestock are considered using analyses developed for the United States. Hot weather effects are the principal focus because of constraints imposed by the animal performance algorithms; however, examples are provided to illustrate the effects during other seasons. Predicted global warming, if realized, will have substantial impacts on animal agriculture in the United States and globally. In terms of environmental management, however, the impacts may be reduced by recognizing the adaptive ability of animals and by proactive application of appropriate counter-measures (sunshades, evaporative cooling, etc.). Livestock producers in areas already accustomed to coping with hot weather may already have the means and management skills to at least partially counter the additional heat stress. Therefore, the actual impacts of increased production and reproduction declines on net production costs and management demands may be greater in more northerly areas, where currently applied countermeasures are fewer. Also, global warming during normally cooler periods may be beneficial. Last, but far from least, the capabilities of livestock managers to cope with the predicted effects of global change are quite likely to keep up with projected rates of change in global temperature. Since coping can entail costs, there is potential for significant economic impacts of global warming on key areas of animal agriculture for summer season production, reproduction and efficiency. Technical Abstract: The potential direct effects of global warming on swine growth and efficiency, and on dairy cow milk production and reproduction, are considered using analyses developed for the United States. Hot weather effects are the principal focus because of constraints imposed by the animal performance algorithms; however, examples were used to illustrate the effects during other seasons in a temperate climate, which showed at least limited benefits can accrue. Potential effects of global warming on summer season animal performance based on three global circulation model scenarios are generally higher than either "1 year in 10" probability-based effects from the current climate or effects based on the abnormally hot summer of 1980. In the United States, the largest quantitative effects are predicted to occur in southern regions, including several areas of high dairy cattle and swine concentrations. Predicted global warming, if realized, will have substantial impacts on animal agriculture in the United States and globally. In terms of environmental management, however, the impacts during summer may be reduced by recognizing the adaptive ability of animals and by proactive application of appropriate counter-measures (sunshades, evaporative cooling, etc.). Coping capabilities of livestock managers are quite likely to keep up with projected rates of change in global temperature. However, coping entails costs, so there is potential for significant economic impacts of global warming on key areas of animal agriculture. |
