Modeling current and future climate effects on winter wheat production in Colorado, USA

Authors: ELSAYED, M - Agricultural Research Center Of Egypt; Anapalli, Saseendran; Ahuja, Lajpat; Ma, Liwang; Trout, Thomas; ANDALES, A - Colorado State University

Submitted to: Book Chapter
Publication Type: Book / Chapter
Publication Acceptance Date: 2/20/2018
Publication Date: 3/6/2019
Citation: Elsayed, M.L., Anapalli, S.S., Ahuja, L.R., Ma, L., Trout, T.J., Andales, A.A. 2019. Modeling Current and Future Climate Effects on Winter Wheat Production in Colorado, USA. In: O. Wendroth, R., L. Ma, editors. Bridging Among Disciplines by Senthesizing Soil and Plant Processes. Madison, WI: ASA, CSSA, SSSA. https://doi.org/10.2134/advagricsystmodel8.2017.0015. Pp 177-199.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2134/advagricsystmodel8.2017.0015

Interpretive Summary: The US Central Great Plains is an important wheat growing area, and climate change effects on wheat production are a concern for the farming community. We explored the possible consequences of climate change on dryland and irrigated winter wheat in the semiarid temperate climate of Colorado, USA. The Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM2), which contains CSM-CERES-Maize v4.0 plant growth submodel, was used for simulating wheat growth under current and projected climates. The model was first calibrated and tested with field experimental data collected at the USDA-ARS Limited Irrigation Research Farm at Greeley, CO for six irrigation treatments, over three growing seasons from 2008 to 2011. The biomass and grain yield increased with increase in irrigation level. The Projected climate change under the lowest IPCC greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP2.6) had practically no effect on grain yields in 2050 and 2080 at all tested irrigation levels. However, under higher emission scenarios of RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5, grain yields increased moderately over the current level, mainly due to the CO2 fertilization effect in the C3 wheat plant and more favorable warmer winter and spring temperatures for wheat growth associated with climates in 2050 and 2080. These increases were obtained in spite of the reduction in growth period of the crop due to higher temperatures. The speeded up growth period may have allowed the crop to avoid the higher temperature and lower rainfall stresses during July and August months. Results show that winter wheat is a good adaptation crop for climate change in the US Central Great Plains.

Technical Abstract: Location specific consequences of GCM projected climate change on over-wintering crops like winter wheat can vary geographically (latitude and longitude) depending on the severity and duration of the cold period and other factors like the altitude, precipitation distribution, and photoperiod. The US Central Great Plains is an important wheat growing area, and climate change effects on wheat production are a concern for the farming community. Our objectives were to explore the possible consequences of climate change on dryland and irrigated winter wheat in the semiarid temperate climate of Colorado, USA. The Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM2), which contains CSM-CERES-Maize v4.0 plant growth submodel, was used for simulating wheat growth under current and projected climates. The model was first calibrated and evaluation with field experimental data collected at the USDA-ARS Limited Irrigation Research Farm at Greeley, CO for six irrigation treatments, over three growing seasons from 2008 to 2011. The model simulated results agreed with the measured data for leaf area, biomass, and grain yield, with RMSE values that were close to standard deviation of the experimental data and within values reported in the literature. The RMSEs of the simulated grain yields were 464, 471 and 544 kg ha-1 for the 2008-09, 2009-10 and 2010-11 crops, respectively. The biomass and grain yield increased with increase in irrigation level. The projected climate change under the lowest IPCC greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP2.6) had practically no effect on grain yields in 2050 and 2080 for dryland or irrigated crop. However, under higher emission scenarios of RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5, grain yields increased moderately over the current level, mainly due to the CO2 fertilization effect in the C3 wheat plant and more favorable warmer winter and spring temperatures for wheat growth associated with climates in 2050 and 2080. These increases were obtained in spite of the reduction in growth period of the crop due to higher temperatures. Results show that winter wheat is a good adaptation crop for climate change in the US Central Great Plains.