Vulnerability of specialty crops to short-term climatic variability and adaptation strategies in the Midwestern USA

Authors: Kistner-Thomas, Erica; KELLNER, OLIVIA - Illinois State Water Survey; ANDRESEN, JEFFREY - Michigan State University; Todey, Dennis; MORTON, LOIS - Iowa State University

Submitted to: Climatic Change
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 8/21/2017
Publication Date: 9/22/2017
Citation: Kistner-Thomas, E.J., Kellner, O.B., Andresen, J.A., Todey, D.P., Morton, L.W. 2017. Vulnerability of specialty crops to short-term climatic variability and adaptation strategies in the Midwestern USA. Climatic Change. 146:145-158. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2066-1.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2066-1

Interpretive Summary: Increasingly variable weather and climate change pose a significant threat to the wide variety of specialty crops grown in the Midwestern United States. Specialty crops are defined as fruits and vegetables, tree nuts, dried fruits, horticulture, and nursery crops. These high-value crops are more susceptible to weather related hazards compared to traditional row crops because of their intensive management requirements as well as consumer demand for high quality products. In this study, we examine how observed climatic trends are impacting specialty crop production in the Midwest and grower perceptions of production risks associated with a changing climate. We found excessive moisture, frost, and drought events to be the primary causes of specialty crop losses in the Midwest over the past twenty-five years. While specialty crop growers were well aware of the increased risks that climatic change poses to their agricultural enterprises, they also identified a lack of crop specific forecasting and management tools. In conclusion, we argue that further research is greatly needed to develop a robust toolkit of adaptation strategies to meet the diverse needs of Midwestern specialty crop farmers. This research has applied value to scientists, growers, and crop consultants who are interested in sustainable agricultural practices under an increasingly variable and changing climate.

Technical Abstract: While the Midwestern United States ranks among the world's most important corn-soybean production regions, the area also produces a variety of high-value specialty crops. These crops are an important component of the region's rural economy with an estimated value of $1.8 billion in 2012. More profitable per-acre than many row crops, specialty crops also have higher production-related risks. They are generally more sensitive to climatic stressors and require more comprehensive management compared to traditional row crops. Temperature and precipitation fluctuations across the Midwest directly impact specialty crop production quantity and quality and indirectly influence the timing of crucial farm operations and the economic impacts of pests, weeds, and diseases. Increasingly variable weather and climate change pose a serious threat to specialty crop production in the Midwest. In this article, we assess how climate variability and observed climatic trends are impacting Midwestern specialty crop production using USDA Risk Management Agency data. In addition, we review current trends in grower perceptions of risks associated with a changing climate and assess sustainable adaptation strategies. Our results indicate that weather induced losses vary by state with excessive moisture resulting in the highest total number of claims across all Midwestern states followed by freeze and drought events. Overall, specialty crop growers are aware of the increased production risk under a changing climate and have identified the need for crop specific weather, production, and financial risk management tools and increased crop insurance coverage.