Narrowing uncertainties in the effects of elevated CO2 on crops

Authors: TORETI, A - EUROPEAN COMMISSION-JOINT RESEARCH CENTRE (JRC); DERYNG, D - INSTITUTE OF LANDSCAPE SYSTEMS ANALYSIS OF LEIBNIZ CENTRE FOR AGRICULTURAL LANDSCAPE; MULLER, C - POTSDAM INSTITUTE; Kimball, Bruce; MOSER, G - JUSTUS-LIEBIG UNIVERSITY; BOOTE, K - UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA; ASSENG, S - UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA; PUGH, T.A.M - UNIVERSITY OF BIRMINGHAM; VANUYTRECHT, E - UNIVERSITY OF LEUVEN; PLEIJEL, H - UNIVERSITY OF GOTHENBURG; WEBBER, H - LEIBNIZ CENTRE; DURAND, J - INSTITUT NATIONAL DE LA RECHERCHE AGRONOMIQUE (INRA); DENTENER, F - EUROPEAN COMMISSION-JOINT RESEARCH CENTRE (JRC); CEGLAR, A - EUROPEAN COMMISSION-JOINT RESEARCH CENTRE (JRC); WANG, X - LABORATOIRE DES SCIENCES DU CLIMAT ET DE L'ENVIRONNEMENT (LSCE); BADECK, F - COUNCIL FOR AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH AND AG ECONCOMY ANALYSIS; LECERF, R - EUROPEAN COMMISSION-JOINT RESEARCH CENTRE (JRC); Wall, Gerard - Gary; VAN DEN BERG, M - EUROPEAN COMMISSION-JOINT RESEARCH CENTRE (JRC); HOEGY, P - UNIVERSITY OF HOHENHEIM; LOPEZ-LOZANO, R - INSTITUT NATIONAL DE LA RECHERCHE AGRONOMIQUE (INRA); ZAMPIERI, M - EUROPEAN COMMISSION-JOINT RESEARCH CENTRE (JRC); GALMARINI, S - EUROPEAN COMMISSION-JOINT RESEARCH CENTRE (JRC); ROSENZWEIG, C - NASA GODDARD INSTITUTE FOR SPACE STUDIES

Submitted to: Nature Food
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 11/6/2020
Publication Date: 12/11/2020
Citation: Toreti, A., Deryng, D., Muller, C., Kimball, B.A., Moser, G., Boote, K., Asseng, S., Pugh, T., Vanuytrecht, E., Pleijel, H., Webber, H., Durand, J.L., Dentener, F., Ceglar, A., Wang, X., Badeck, F., Lecerf, R., Wall, G.W., Van Den Berg, M., Hoegy, P., Lopez-Lozano, R., Zampieri, M., Galmarini, S., Rosenzweig, C. 2020. Narrowing uncertainties in the effects of elevated CO2 on crops. Nature Food. 1:775-782. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-020-00195-4.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-020-00195-4

Interpretive Summary: The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is increasing, so it is important that the models used to project future agricultural productivity can accurately simulate the effects of elevated CO2 on crop growth. Numerous experiments have been conducted to observe effects on crop growth, and their results are reviewed and summarized. However, it was noted that the experiments have primarily been conducted in Europe and the U.S. and none in Africa. Further, most experiments have been of short duration. The mechanisms by which CO2 affects plants and how they are simulated in most models are reviewed. Knowledge gaps are identified, and recommendations are made for steps that need to be taken to improve the accuracy of the models. This research benefits all consumers of food and fiber.

Technical Abstract: Plant responses to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, together with projected variations in temperature and precipitation will determine future agricultural production. Estimates of the impacts of climate change on agriculture provide essential information to design effective adaptation strategies, and develop sustainable food systems. Here, we review the current experimental evidence and crop models on the effects of elevated CO2 concentrations. Recent concerted efforts have narrowed the uncertainties in CO2-induced crop responses so that climate change impact simulations omitting CO2 can now be eliminated. To address remaining knowledge gaps and uncertainties in estimating the effects of elevated CO2 and climate change on crops, future research should expand experiments on more crop species under a wider range of growing conditions, improve the representation of responses to climate extremes in crop models, and simulate additional crop physiological processes related to nutritional quality.