Where do all the aphids go? A series of thought experiments within the context of areawide pest management

Authors: WANG, HSIAO-HSUAN - Texas A&M University; GRANT, WILLIAM - Texas A&M University; KORALEWSKI, TOMASZ - Texas A&M University; Elliott, Norman - Norm; BREWER, MICHAEL - Texas A&M University; WESTBROOK, JOHN - Texas A&M University

Submitted to: Agricultural Systems
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 9/20/2020
Publication Date: 11/1/2020
Citation: Wang, H., Grant, W.E., Koralewski, T.E., Elliott, N.C., Brewer, M.J., Westbrook, J.K. 2020. Where do all the aphids go? A series of thought experiments within the context of areawide pest management. Agricultural Systems. 185:102957. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2020.102957.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2020.102957

Interpretive Summary: Aphids are economically important crop pests worldwide. Aphid populations grow extremely fast and migration on winds is a critical part of their life cycle that largely determines why these pests are so wide-spread and destructive. Forecasting invasions by aphids into crops poses the challenge of modeling both the terrestrial and windborne portions of their life cycle. Within the context of area-wide pest management, modelling migrations of aphids is particularly important. We present a series of thought 24 experiments, using sugarcane aphids infesting sorghum as a test case, in which we ponder the relative importance of accurate forecasting of magnitudes of migrations and initial infestations versus accurate forecasting of timing of only the initial infestations. Our results indicate the latter is more important. Within the context of area-wide pest management programs, this suggests improvement in forecasting models for windborne pests most likely will come from increased emphasis on the windborne portion of the pest life cycle. This is an important result because it focuses research effort in a limited portion of the complex life cycle these important crop pests.

Technical Abstract: Aphids are economically important wind-borne crop pests worldwide. Forecasting invasions poses the challenge of modelling both the terrestrial and aerial portions of their life cycle in temporally-variable, spatially-heterogeneous environments. Within the context of area-wide pest management, modelling migrations is particularly problematic. We present a series of thought 24 experiments, using sugarcane aphids (Melanaphis sacchari) as a test case, in which we ponder the relative importance of accurate forecasting of magnitudes of migrations and initial infestations versus accurate forecasting of timing of initial infestations. Our results indicate the latter is more important. Within the context of area-wide pest management programs, this suggests improvement in forecasting models for windborne pests most likely will come from increased emphasis on the aeroecological portion of the pest life cycle.