Potential impact of climate change on the global geographical distribution of the invasive species, Cenchrus spinifex (field sandbur, Gramineae)

Authors: CAO, JING - China Agricultural University; XU, JUN - Inner Mongolian Agriculture University; PAN, XUBIN - Chinese Academy Of Inspection And Quarantine; Monaco, Thomas; ZHAO, KUN - China Agriculture University; WANG, DEPING - China Agriculture University; RONG, YUPING - China Agriculture University

Submitted to: Ecological Indicators
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 9/10/2021
Publication Date: 9/20/2021
Citation: Cao, J., Xu, J., Pan, X., Monaco, T.A., Zhao, K., Wang, D., Rong, Y. 2021. Potential impact of climate change on the global geographical distribution of the invasive species, Cenchrus spinifex (field sandbur, Gramineae). Ecological Indicators. 131. Article 108204. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.108204.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.108204

Interpretive Summary: Field sandbur reduces crop and grassland productivity and is currently spreading. Its spread might be associated with climate change in recent decades. We studied the role of climate change on this trend and highlight regions of high invasion risk using global distribution data and maximum entropy models (MaxEnt). We identified suitable habitats based on four global climate models and two representative concentration pathways under different climate scenarios. Suitable habitat for field sandbur was found in six continents including central South America, southern parts of North America and Africa, most of Mediterranean coastal European regions, Asia, Australia, and New Zealand. Future climate conditions may promote expansion into coastal regions. Meanwhile, populations in the northern and southern hemisphere were expected to spread further southward. Looking into the future, we found that suitable habitat area would be slightly reduced in 2050 and 2070. Temperature and precipitation variation could be the major environmental variables affecting the potential distribution. Our research provides a foundation to focus future management efforts and prioritize area of greatest ecological concern.

Technical Abstract: Field sandbur (Cenchrus spinifex Cav.) is an annual grass native to North America that has spread widely in South America, Europe, Asia, Australia and other regions, reducing crop and grassland productivity. In recent decades, global climate change and human activity have been linked to the spread of C. spinifex and its impact on ecosystem biodiversity. In order to characterize the role of climate change on this trend and highlight regions of high invasion risk, we used global distribution data and maximum entropy models (MaxEnt) to analyze suitable habitats based on four global climate models and two representative concentration pathways under different climate scenarios. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis method was also used to further verify the prediction accuracy of the model, which was statistically significant (AUC = 0.921; P = insert p-value). Suitable distribution areas of C. spinifex at present climate conditions were located at six continents including central South America, southern parts of North America and Africa, most of Mediterranean coastal European regions, Asia, Australia, and New Zealand. Future climate conditions may promote C. spinifex expansion into coastal regions. Meanwhile, C. spinifex in the northern and southern hemisphere were expected to spread further southward (20-55°N; 30-55°S) compared to present potential geographical distribution. The suitable habitat area of C. spinifex would be slightly reduced in 2050 and 2070. Temperature and precipitation variation could be the major environmental variables affecting the potential distribution of C. spinifex. Preventing the spread of C. spinifex in the future will require strict plant quarantine measures to reduce colonization of new regions. Moreover, multiple proactive control measures including removal of dense stands, herbicide treatments to suppress seed production, and building invasion resistance of wildlands and agro-ecosystem by planting desirable vegetation should be applied to reduce the spread of C. spinifex. Our research provides a foundation to focus future management efforts and prioritize area of greatest ecological concern.