Precipitation change accentuates or reverses temperature effects on aphid dispersal

Authors: CROSSLEY, MICHAEL - University Of Georgia; Lagos-Kutz, Doris; DAVIS, THOMAS - University Of Georgia; EIGENBRODE, SANFORD - University Of Idaho; Hartman, Glen; VOEGTLIN, DAVID - University Of Illinois; SNYDER, WILLIAM - University Of Georgia

Submitted to: Ecological Applications
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 12/29/2021
Publication Date: 1/3/2022
Citation: Crossley, M.S., Lagos-Kutz, D.M., Davis, T.S., Eigenbrode, S.D., Hartman, G.L., Voegtlin, D.J., Snyder, W.E. 2022. Precipitation change accentuates or reverses temperature effects on aphid dispersal. Ecological Applications. Volume 32, Issue 5, Article e2593. https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.2593.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.2593

Interpretive Summary: Rising temperatures and precipitation in some of the world’s most productive agroecosystems have the potential to greatly alter insect herbivore-plant interactions in ecologically and economically significant ways. To study this, more than a half of a million aphid observations from the US Midwest Suction Trap Network were examined to determine how the phenology of three agriculturally important aphid species varied with seasonal temperature and precipitation between 2005 and 2019. Climate change projections with climate-aphid phenology models predicted shifts in aphid phenology by 2050 and 2080. While there is growing evidence that early flights of aphids are advancing in response to warming winters, little is known about how the many dimensions of aphid phenology will respond to the combined effects of changing temperature and precipitation. Overall, the climate-aphid phenology models predict that changes in climate will advance and therefore extend the period of crop colonizing flights for three aphid species, despite differing life histories and climatic drivers. This work is important to ecologists, entomologist, pathologist, and people associated with crop agriculture including the growers of corn, small grains, and soybean.

Technical Abstract: More than a half of a million aphid observations from the US Midwest Suction Trap Network were examined to determine how the phenology of three agriculturally important aphid species (Aphis glycines, Rhopalosiphum maidis, Rhopalosiphum padi) varied with seasonal temperature and precipitation between 2005 and 2019. Climate change projections with climate-aphid phenology models predicted shifts in aphid phenology by 2050 and 2080. Climate-aphid phenology associations varied among species and phenology metrics and were strongest for the recent invader and soybean specialist, A. glycines. First flights occurred earlier, extending the flight period, for R. maidis and R. padi in response to warmer summers and wetter-winters, respectively. Early and late flights of A. glycines advanced with warmer and wetter summers, respectively, with opposing effects on the overall synchrony of A. glycines flights. The warming conditions of 2050 and 2080 were predicted to advance crop colonizing flights in all three species, but to varying degrees. In the most extreme scenario, crop colonizing flights of A. glycines and R. padi could theoretically advance by over two months.