South Texas water resource mental models: a systems thinking, multi-stakeholder case study

Authors: FLORES- LOPEZ, CHIS - Texas A&M University; TURNER, BENJAMIN - Texas A&M University; HANAGRIFF, ROGER - Texas A&M University; Bhandari, Ammar; SINHA, TUSHAR - Texas A&M University

Submitted to: Journal of Contemporary Water Research and Education
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 7/29/2022
Publication Date: 9/10/2022
Citation: Flores- Lopez, C., Turner, B.L., Hanagriff, R., Bhandari, A.B., Sinha, T. 2022. South Texas water resource mental models: a systems thinking, multi-stakeholder case study. Journal of Contemporary Water Research and Education. volume 176 issue 21 pg 15-35. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1936-704X.2022.3373.x.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1936-704X.2022.3373.x

Interpretive Summary: South Texas represents a major agricultural region reliant upon three distinct water sources: precipitation in dryland cropping systems in the Nueces watershed valley and surrounding Coastal Bend plains (CB); surface water flows for ditch irrigation that is generally low quality in the Lower Rio Grande Valley; and groundwater sources for pivot sprinkler irrigation in the Wintergarden area(CB and WG). Each subregion faces unique water quality challenges, such as nutrient loading and urban stormwater runoff problems leading to excessive aquatic plant growth and potential disease transmission pathways in the LRGV or perennial salinity issues due to poor soil quality and declining groundwater tables (CB and WG). Hence, to better understand south Texas stakeholder mental models on water use and sustainability, researchers from Texas A&M University-Kingsville and USDA-ARS Crop Production System Research Unit (CPSRU), Stoneville, MS, used semi-structured interviews with individuals with a significant stake in water resource use and management. Results indicated that farmers expressed concerns about continuing farming if additional water resources were unavailable. In addition, growing bureaucratic oversight, growing population problems, poor water quality, international disputes with Mexico, and declining groundwater levels are major issues identified by producers in the study areas. This research on the producer's mental model and perspective will help policymakers and other stakeholders address water management and sustainability issues in the region to maximize future farm productivity.

Technical Abstract: The Coastal Bend (CB), Lower Rio Grande Valley (LRGV), and Wintergarden (WG) subregions of south Texas co-exist in similar socio-economic contexts, but the water sources each relies on vary widely (CB=precipitation; LRGV=surface water; WG=groundwater). This has led to unique agricultural practices and municipal policies and reinforced mental models that are adapted specifically to each subregion, both of which are critical to understanding structural causes behind current water use and future sustainability of water resources. To better understand south Texas stakeholder mental models, semi-structured interviews were conducted with individuals with a significant stake in water resource use and management. Results indicated near unanimous consensus among farmers and other stakeholders that water supply is limited and will be increasingly stressed as urban populations continue growing. Farmers expressed concerns that it will become more difficult to continue farming if additional water resources are not available, while each subregion expressed their own unique concerns: growing bureaucratic oversight and growing population problems (CB), lack of inflows, poor water quality, and international disputes with Mexico (LRGV), and political subdivision, declining groundwater levels, and information technology costs (WG). Mental models were synthesized based on dominant themes expressed by respondents. Two systems thinking archetypes were identified (Tragedy of the Commons and Success the Successful). While unreasonable to create blanket region-wide policies, utilizing regenerative soil health practices tailored to local conditions coupled to outreach and education are unexplored leverage points given that most are unaware of the feedback processes that will continue threatening water sustainability in south Texas.