Impact of recent climate change on cotton and soybean yields in the southeastern United States

Authors: SHARMA, RAMANDEEP - Mississippi State University; KUMAR, SUNNY - Punjab Agricultural University; VATTA, KAMAL - Punjab Agricultural University; DHILLON, JAGMANDEEP - Mississippi State University; Reddy, Krishna

Submitted to: Journal of Agriculture and Food Research
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 7/21/2022
Publication Date: 7/31/2022
Citation: Sharma, R.K., Kumar, S., Vatta, K., Dhillon, J., Reddy, K.N. 2022. Impact of recent climate change on cotton and soybean yields in the southeastern United States. Journal of Agriculture and Food Research. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jafr.2022.100348.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jafr.2022.100348

Interpretive Summary: The Southeastern region of the United States (SE-US) is agroecologically diverse, economically agriculture reliant, and distinct from the twentieth century warming trend. Understanding the effects of climate change on crop production will allow cotton and soybean growers to properly adapt to the changing climate and develop mitigation strategies to boost future production. Scientists from Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, Mississippi; Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana, Punjab, India; and USDA-ARS, Crop Production Systems Research Unit, Stoneville, Mississippi have quantified the effect of previous climate change from 1980 to 2020 on cotton and soybean yields of the SE-US. The study utilized the fixed effect panel model approach to assess the impact of temperatures and precipitation from 1980-2020 on cotton and soybean yields in 11 states of SE-US. The Tmax, Tmin, and precipitation have shifted in the range of 0.46-0.50 °C, 1.30-1.45 °C, and 3.74-3.95 cm, respectively, during the cotton growing season (CGS) and soybean growing seasons (SGS). However, the annual rate of change in Tmax, Tmin, and precipitation from 1980 to 2020 was in the range of 0.011-0.012 °C, 0.031-0.034 °C, and 0.089-0.094 cm, respectively, during the CGS and SGS. Furthermore, precipitation had no significant effect on cotton and soybean yields. Overall, cotton yield improved as the adverse impact of Tmax was offset by Tmin, whereas, soybean yield was negatively decreased due to increases in Tmax and Tmin.

Technical Abstract: The Southeastern region of the United States (SE-US) is agroecologically diverse, economically agriculture reliant, and distinct from the twentieth century warming trend. Considering the inextricable link between climate and agricultural production, impact of climate-driven abiotic and biotic stresses, and anticipated rapid inclination of global warming by 2100, it is necessary to quantify future environmental implications on production of two economically important crops of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum ) and soybean (Glycine max ) in the SE-US. The current study used the fixed-effect model (panel data approach) a suggested method for climate and yield studies, to assess the impact of climatic variables from 1980 to 2020 such as daily maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperatures (Tmin), and daily precipitation (data assessed from: NOAA, 2021) on cotton and soybean yields (data assessed from: USDA-NASS, 2021) in the SE-US. The data from 11 states were averaged per growing season and results revealed significant variability in temperature and precipitation in the region during the last four decades. The Tmax, Tmin, and precipitation have shifted in the range of 0.46-0.50 °C, 1.30-1.45 °C, and 3.74-3.95 cm, respectively, during the cotton growing season (CGS) and soybean growing seasons (SGS). However, the annual rate of change in Tmax, Tmin, and precipitation from 1980 to 2020 was in the range of 0.011-0.012 °C, 0.031-0.034 °C, and 0.089-0.094 cm, respectively, during the CGS and SGS. Furthermore, precipitation had no significant effect on cotton and soybean yields. A 1 °C rise in Tmin increased cotton yield by 20.8% while decreasing soybean yield by 31.6%. Alternatively, a 1 °C rise in Tmax decreased cotton and soybean yield by 10.3% and 25.6%, respectively. Overall, cotton yield improved as the adverse impact of Tmax was offset by Tmin, whereas, soybean yield was negatively decreased due to increases in Tmax and Tmin.