Impact of recent climate change on corn, rice, and wheat in Southeastern USA

Authors: SHARMA, RAMANDEEP - Mississippi State University; KUMAR, SUNNY - Punjab Agricultural University; VATTA, KAMAL - Punjab Agricultural University; BHEEMANAHALLI, RAJU - Mississippi State University; DHILLON, JAGMANDEEP - Mississippi State University; Reddy, Krishna

Submitted to: Environmental Science and Pollution Research
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 9/27/2022
Publication Date: 10/8/2022
Citation: Sharma, R.K., Kumar, S., Vatta, K., Bheemanahalli, R., Dhillon, J., Reddy, K.N. 2022. Impact of recent climate change on corn, rice, and wheat in Southeastern USA. Environmental Science and Pollution Research. http://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-21454-3.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-21454-3

Interpretive Summary: Climate change and its impact on agriculture productivity vary among crops and regions. The Southeastern United States (SE-US) is agroecologically diverse, economically dependant on agriculture. Understanding the effects of climate change on crop production will allow corn, rice, and wheat growers to properly adapt to the changing climate and develop mitigation strategies to boost future production. Scientists from Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, Mississippi; Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana, Punjab, India; and USDA-ARS, Crop Production Systems Research Unit, Stoneville, Mississippi have assessed the effect of previous climate change from 1980 to 2020 on corn, rice, and wheat yields of the SE-US. A fixed-effect model (panel data approach) was used by applying the production function on panel data from 1980 to 2020 from 11 SE-US states. An asymmetrical warming pattern was observed, where nocturnal warming was 105.90%, 106.30%, and 32.14%, higher than the diurnal warming during corn, rice, and wheat growing seasons, respectively. Additionally, a shift in rainfall was noticed ranging from 1.92-3.72 cm over different growing seasons. Rainfall significantly reduced wheat yield, while, it had no effect on corn and rice yields. The Tmax and Tmin had no significant effect on wheat yield. A 1°C rise in Tmax significantly decreased corn (-34%) and rice (-8.30%) yield which was offset by a 1°C increase in Tmin increasing corn (47%) and rice (22.40%) yield. Overall, temperature change in the SE-US significantly improved corn yield by 13%, rice yield by 14.10%, and had no effect on wheat yield.

Technical Abstract: Climate change and its impact on agriculture productivity vary among crops and regions. The southeastern United States (SE-US) is agro-ecologically diversified, economically dependent on agriculture, and mostly overlooked by agroclimatic researchers. The objective of this study was to compute the effect of climatic variables; daily maximum temperature (Tmax), daily minimum temperature (Tmin), and rainfall on the yield of major cereal crops i.e., corn (Zea mays L.), rice (Oryza sativa L.), and wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) in SE-US. A fixed-effect model (panel data approach) was used by applying the production function on panel data from 1980 to 2020 from 11 SE-US states. An asymmetrical warming pattern was observed, where nocturnal warming was 105.90%, 106.30%, and 32.14%, higher than the diurnal warming during corn, rice, and wheat growing seasons, respectively. Additionally, a shift in rainfall was noticed ranging from 1.92-3.72 cm over different growing seasons. Rainfall significantly reduced wheat yield, while, it had no effect on corn and rice yields. The Tmax and Tmin had no significant effect on wheat yield. A 1°C rise in Tmax significantly decreased corn (-34%) and rice (-8.30%) yield which was offset by a 1°C increase in Tmin increasing corn (47%) and rice (22.40%) yield. Overall, temperature change in the SE-US significantly improved corn yield by 13%, rice yield by 14.10%, and had no effect on wheat yield.