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ARS Home » Midwest Area » St. Paul, Minnesota » Soil and Water Management Research » Research » Publications at this Location » Publication #395779
Research Project: Developing Aspirational Practices Through Improved Process Understanding to Protect Soil and Air Resources and Increase Agricultural Productivity in the Upper Midwest U.S.

Location: Soil and Water Management Research

Title: Midwest

Author
item Baker, John
item WILSON, AARON - The Ohio State University
item Ainsworth, Elizabeth - Lisa
item ANDRESEN, JEFFREY - University Of Michigan
item AUSTIN, JAY - University Of Minnesota
item DUKES, JEFFREY - Carnegie Institute - Washington
item GIBBONS, ELIZABETH - Collaborator
item HOPPE, BRENDALYNN - University Of Minnesota
item LEDEE, OLIVIA - Us Geological Survey (USGS)
item NOEL, JAMES - National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
item ROOP, HEIDI - University Of Minnesota
item SMITH, SARA - Collaborator
item Todey, Dennis
item WOLF, RAY - National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
item WOOD, JEFFREY - University Of Missouri

Submitted to: Book Chapter
Publication Type: Book / Chapter
Publication Acceptance Date: 11/14/2023
Publication Date: 11/14/2023
Citation: Baker, J.M., Wilson, A.B., Ainsworth, E.A., Andresen, J., Austin, J.A., Dukes, J.S., Gibbons, E., Hoppe, B.O., Ledee, O.E., Noel, J., Roop, H.A., Smith, S.A., Todey, D.P., Wolf, R., Wood, J.D. 2023. Midwest. In: Fifth National Climate Assessment. Crimmins, A.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock, Eds. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA. https://doi.org/10.7930/NCA5.2023.CH24.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.7930/NCA5.2023.CH24

Interpretive Summary: The Midwest is rich in landscapes and diverse in people and culture. The region covers more than 328 million acres, with approximately 284 million acres designated for agriculture, covered by forests, or set aside as public land. It houses and sustains vital ecosystems and wildlife and provides refuge and recreation for its residents including 35 federally recognized Tribes and numerous other state- and non-recognized Tribes. More than 40,000 natural lakes and thousands more man-made reservoirs and ponds dot the landscape. The Midwest borders four of the five Great Lakes, containing approximately 21% of the world’s surface freshwater supply and hosting about 10% of the United States’ population within its basin. Flowing throughout the region are more than 500,000 miles of rivers and streams, including the Mississippi, Missouri, and Ohio Rivers—critical lifelines in the exchange goods and services throughout the country. The Midwest is linked by more than 2 million miles of roads, 160,000 bridges, 34,000 rail miles, and 3,000 airports.All this richness and diversity is at risk due to climate change.

Technical Abstract: Temperatures across the Midwest are expected to increase between 3°F and 5°F by about 2050 (intermediate scenario, RCP4.5), with more than an 8°F increase possible by the end of the century (very high scenario, RCP8.5). Precipitation is expected to increase across the region, with changes to the seasonal distribution including wetter winters and springs and variable summers. Models project more intense precipitation and rapid cycling between extreme wet and dry episodes. These changes threaten the economic and environmental sustainability of our agricultural practices, natural resources, health and well-being, built environments, and water resources.Without adaptation and mitigation, food production and farmer well-being are at risk due to increasing temperatures and oscillations between extreme droughts and floods. These projected changes pose challenges for the future of agricultural crop insurance and other agricultural support programs. Climate change interacts with a number of complex variables to threaten aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, residents’ access to certain areas, and important connections between Indigenous peoples and their land.