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ARS Home » Pacific West Area » Riverside, California » Agricultural Water Efficiency and Salinity Research Unit » Research » Publications at this Location » Publication #396645
Research Project: Water Management for Crop Production in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions and the Safe Use of Alternative Water Resources

Location: Agricultural Water Efficiency and Salinity Research Unit

Title: Impact of climate change and future water availability on soil salinity and almond production in the San Joaquin Valley, California

Author
item Anderson, Raymond - Ray
item HELALIA, SARAH - University Of California, Riverside
item Skaggs, Todd
item ŠIMUNEK, JIRKA - University Of California, Riverside

Submitted to: Meeting Abstract
Publication Type: Abstract Only
Publication Acceptance Date: 10/4/2022
Publication Date: 12/12/2022
Citation: Anderson, R.G., Helalia, S.A., Skaggs, T.H., Šimunek, J. 2022. Impact of climate change and future water availability on soil salinity and almond production in the San Joaquin Valley, California. Meeting Abstract. N/A.

Interpretive Summary:

Technical Abstract: The Western San Joaquin Valley (SJV), California, USA, is a major production region for high-value perennial specialty crops, including salt-sensitive species such as almonds. However, long-term changes in Californian climate are expected to decrease available runoff and thus irrigation district water availability and increase the reliance on more brackish groundwater for irrigation in the Western SJV. Therefore, we conducted a sensitivity analysis of almond susceptibility to long-term brackish groundwater use using a combination of climate scenarios from CalADAPT and the HYDRUS-1D model to understand the potential impacts of climate change on water quality and salinity impacts. We used three future irrigation scenarios consisting of 80% district water, 50% district water, and 20% district water with the remaining balance coming from locally available groundwater in the SJV. We used two climate models representing a generally wetter local environment (CNRM_CM5) and a drier environment (CSM4) along with two representative pathway concentrations for medium (RCP 4.5) and severe (RCP 8.5) climate change. We ran the simulations for 30 years (2020-2050). Precipitation provided insufficient leaching when the fraction of irrigation water from groundwater was greater than 50% in the western SJV. Under the CSM4 scenario, transpiration (and thus assumed yield) was reduced by more than 50% in the western SJV. These results highlight future challenges in growing perennial, salt-sensitive crops in the western SJV without a reliable, higher-quality, irrigation water supply.