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ARS Home » Southeast Area » Stoneville, Mississippi » Crop Production Systems Research » Research » Publications at this Location » Publication #398912
Research Project: Development of Productive, Profitable, and Sustainable Crop Production Systems for the Mid-South

Location: Crop Production Systems Research

Title: Crop-climate link in the southeastern USA: a case study on oats and sorghum

Author
item SHARMA, RAMANDEEP - Mississippi State University
item DHILLON, JAGMANDEEP - Mississippi State University
item KUMAR, SUNNY - Punjab Agricultural University
item VATTA, KAMAL - Punjab Agricultural University
item Reddy, Krishna

Submitted to: Scientific Reports
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 5/4/2023
Publication Date: 5/5/2023
Citation: Sharma, K., Dhillon, J., Kumar, S., Vatta, K., Reddy, K.N. 2023. Crop-climate link in the southeastern USA: a case study on oats and sorghum. Scientific Reports. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jafr.2023.100626.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jafr.2023.100626

Interpretive Summary: Climate change and its impact on agriculture productivity vary among crops and regions. The Southeastern United States (SE-US) is agroecologically diverse, economically dependant on agriculture. Understanding the effects of climate change on crop production will allow oats and sorghum growers to properly adapt to the changing climate and develop mitigation strategies to boost future production. Scientists from Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, Mississippi; Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana, Punjab, India; and USDA-ARS, Crop Production Systems Research Unit, Stoneville, Mississippi have assessed the effect of previous climate change from 1980 to 2020 on oats and sorghum yields of the SE-US. The panel data approach with a fixed effects model was used on a panel dataset of climate and yield variables. The results revealed asymmetric warmings (Tmin increase >Tmax increase) over the region. Tmax and Tmin significantly increased during the oats growing season (OGS) and sorghum growing season (SGS). Precipitation increased during OGS and decreased during SGS. Precipitation had a non-significant effect on oats and sorghum yields. With every 1°C increase in Tmin and Tmax, oats yield was reduced by (-5%) and (-4%), respectively, whereas sorghum yield was increased by (+13%) and decreased by (-7%), respectively. Taken together, a 1°C net rise in overall temperature reduced oats yield (-9%) while increased sorghum yield (+6%).

Technical Abstract: Recognizing the crop and region-specific irreversible effects of climate change on agriculture is unavoidable. The Southeastern United States region (SE-US) contributes significantly to the United States (US) economy through its diverse agricultural productivity. Climatically, this region is more vulnerable than the rest of the country. This study was designed to quantify the effect of changing climate, i.e., daily maximum temperature (Tmax), daily minimum temperature (Tmin), and precipitation, on oats (Avena sativa L.) and sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L. Moench) in SE-US. The panel data approach with a fixed effects model was applied by creating a production function on a panel dataset (1980-2020) of climate and yield variables. The required diagnostic tests were used to statistically confirm that the dataset was free of multi-collinearity, stationarity, and auto-correlation issues. The results revealed asymmetric warmings (Tmin increase >Tmax increase) over the region. Tmax and Tmin significantly increased during the oats growing season (OGS) and sorghum growing season (SGS). Precipitation increased during OGS and decreased during SGS. The annual average values of Tmax, Tmin, and Tavg (daily average temperature) have shifted by 1.08°C (0.027°C/year), 1.32°C (0.033°C/year), and 1.20°C (0.030°C/year) in OGS and by 0.92°C (0.023°C/year), 1.32°C (0.033°C/year), and 1.12°C (0.028°C/year) in SGS. However, precipitation had shifted by 23.2 mm (0.58 mm/year) in OGS and shifted (decreased) by -5.2 mm (-0.13 mm/year) in SGS. Precipitation had a non-significant effect on oats and sorghum yields. With every 1°C increase in Tmin and Tmax, oats yield was reduced by (-5%) and (-4%), respectively, whereas sorghum yield was increased by (+13%) and decreased by (-7%), respectively. Taken together, a 1°C net rise in overall temperature reduced oats yield (-9%) while increased sorghum yield (+6%).