Climate change in a semi-arid environment: effects on crop rotation with dairy manure application

Authors: Koehn, Anita; Bjorneberg, David - Dave; Ma, Liwang; Leytem, April; Malone, Robert - Rob; Nouwakpo, Sayjro; QI, ZHIMING - McGill University - Canada

Submitted to: Journal of the ASABE
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 9/27/2023
Publication Date: 3/19/2024
Citation: Koehn, A.C., Bjorneberg, D.L., Ma, L., Leytem, A.B., Malone, R.W., Nouwakpo, S.K., Qi, Z. 2024. Climate change in a semi-arid environment: effects on crop rotation with dairy manure application. Journal of the ASABE. 66(6):1449-1468. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.13031/ja.15661.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.13031/ja.15661

Interpretive Summary: Impacts of climate change on a spring wheat-potato-spring barley-sugarbeet rotation was simulated using the Root Zone Water Quality model (RZWQM2) with 40 general circular model projections and two commonly Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. RZWQM2 scenarios were designed to simulate the increased temperature and CO2 regime of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the affect increased temperature only of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (CO2 = 410ppm), and increased CO2 associated with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (temperature-historical temperature). The crops were grown in the semi-arid region of southern Idaho where all agricultural crops are irrigated; treatments included conventional fertilizer and a high dairy manure application. Spring wheat yield increased 22% and 16% for high manure and fertilizer treatments, respectively, with the most extreme RCP8.5 climate change scenario regime when compared to the historical climate regime for the fertilizer treatment. Using the same comparison, potato tuber yield decreased 60% and 65% in the fertilizer and high manure treatments, respectively, in the most extreme RCP8.5 regime. Spring barley produced 33% higher yield in the extreme RCP8.5 regime, however, when using the historical temperature regime and increasing only the CO2 concentrations to the 936 CO2 ppm regime, yields increased by 50%. Spring barley yields decreased by approximately 10% and 20% for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 temperature only regimes, respectively, (CO2= 410 ppm) compared to the historical fertilizer scenario. Sugarbeet yields also decreased in the RCP8.5 regime (16% and 18% for the high manure and fertilizer, respectively). Nitrogen mineralization and seepage from the profile was strongly influenced by the manure applications and there was little impact of climate change on these processes. In conclusion, spring wheat would benefit from warmer temperatures and increased CO2 concentration in the region. The most extreme climate change scenario (RCP8.5) would adversely impact the tuber (potato) and root (sugarbeet) crops. Spring barley yields increase with a combination of increased temperature and CO2, however yields decreased with high temperatures and no increase in CO2.

Technical Abstract: Impacts of climate change on a spring wheat-potato-spring barley-sugarbeet rotation was simulated using the Root Zone Water Quality model (RZWQM2) with 40 general circular model projections and two commonly Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. RZWQM2 scenarios were designed to simulate the increased temperature and CO2 regime of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the affect increased temperature only of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (CO2 = 410ppm), and increased CO2 associated with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (temperature-historical temperature). The crops were grown in the semi-arid region of southern Idaho where all agricultural crops are irrigated; treatments included conventional fertilizer and a high dairy manure application. Spring wheat yield increased 22% and 16% for high manure and fertilizer treatments, respectively, with the most extreme RCP8.5 climate change scenario regime when compared to the historical climate regime for the fertilizer treatment. Using the same comparison, potato tuber yield decreased 60% and 65% in the fertilizer and high manure treatments, respectively, in the most extreme RCP8.5 regime. Spring barley produced 33% higher yield in the extreme RCP8.5 regime, however, when using the historical temperature regime and increasing only the CO2 concentrations to the 936 CO2 ppm regime, yields increased by 50%. Spring barley yields decreased by approximately 10% and 20% for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 temperature only regimes, respectively, (CO2= 410 ppm) compared to the historical fertilizer scenario. Sugarbeet yields also decreased in the RCP8.5 regime (16% and 18% for the high manure and fertilizer, respectively). Nitrogen mineralization and seepage from the profile was strongly influenced by the manure applications and there was little impact of climate change on these processes. In conclusion, spring wheat would benefit from warmer temperatures and increased CO2 concentration in the region. The most extreme climate change scenario (RCP8.5) would adversely impact the tuber (potato) and root (sugarbeet) crops. Spring barley yields increase with a combination of increased temperature and CO2, however yields decreased with high temperatures and no increase in CO2.