The role of crop simulation modeling in assessing potential climate change impacts

Authors: Timlin, Dennis; Paff, Kirsten; Han, Eunjin

Submitted to: Agrosystems, Geosciences & Environment
Publication Type: Review Article
Publication Acceptance Date: 11/20/2023
Publication Date: 1/3/2024
Citation: Timlin, D.J., Paff, K.E., Han, E. 2024. The role of crop simulation modeling in assessing potential climate change impacts. Agrosystems, Geosciences & Environment. 7(1). Article e20453. https://doi.org/10.1002/agg2.20453.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/agg2.20453

Interpretive Summary: Climate change is resulting in short- and long-term heat waves and drought that negatively affect agriculture at this time. We need to assess the effects of changes temperature and rainfall on agricultural production as well as their contribution to limitations on natural resources over time. Patterns of short-term extreme weather events, such as elevated temperatures, flooding, and wind, are not predictable enough to design experiments around. As a result, accurate estimates of future agricultural production can be difficult to assess. Process-based crop and soil simulation models allow us to explore new management options, and thus provide whole-system based knowledge and management guides for different locations over variable climate conditions. We describe applications of crop models to assess regional issues such as irrigation demand, greenhouse gas emissions, policy decisions, and carbon footprints of agriculture. This information is useful to researchers, consultants and policy makers show can use crop simulation models to test different adaptation strategies and assess their effectiveness in reducing the impacts of climate change on agricultural production.

Technical Abstract: Agriculture is weather-dependent, and changes in climate can have a drastic impact on our ability to feed and clothe the world's population. Climate change is resulting in short and long term heat waves and drought that negatively affect agriculture. We need to assess the effects of changes in temperature and rainfall on agricultural production as well as their contribution to limitations of natural resources over time. Patterns of short-term extreme weather events, such as elevated temperatures, flooding, and wind, are not predictable enough to design experiments around. As a result, accurate estimates of future agricultural production can be difficult to assess. Process-based crop and soil simulation models allow us to explore new management options, and thus provide whole-system based knowledge and management guides for different locations over variable climate conditions. By using crop simulation models, researchers can test different adaptation strategies and assess their effectiveness in reducing the impacts of climate change on agricultural production. In this paper we discuss the development of crop models and how they have been adapted to assess the effects of a changing climate on agricultural productivity. We describe applications of crop models to assess regional issues such as irrigation demand, greenhouse gas emissions, policy decisions, and carbon footprints of agriculture. An understanding of future weather and the ability to forecast it is important to be able to use crop models as a planning tool. Different approaches are discussed. We also summarize the Agricultural Model Improvement Program (AgMIP) that is a wide ranging effort to compare and improve crop models and develop standards so that ensembles of models could be used for more robust assessments of the effects of climate change on agriculture.