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ARS Home » Northeast Area » Beltsville, Maryland (BARC) » Beltsville Agricultural Research Center » Hydrology and Remote Sensing Laboratory » Research » Publications at this Location » Publication #411407
Research Project: Enhancing Agricultural Management and Conservation Practices by Advancing Measurement Techniques and Improving Modeling Across Scales

Location: Hydrology and Remote Sensing Laboratory

Title: Understanding climate change impacts on drought in China: A multi-model assessment from CMIP6

Author
item XU, F - Fuzhou University
item QU, Y - China Institute Of Water Resources And Hydropower Research
item BENTO, V - Universidade Nova De Lisboa
item SONG, H - Universidade Nova De Lisboa
item QIU, J - Sun Yat-Sen University
item QI, J - University Of Maryland
item WAN, L - Fuzhou University
item ZHANG, R - Fuzhou University
item Zhang, Xuesong
item WANG, Q - Fuzhou University

Submitted to: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 1/30/2024
Publication Date: N/A
Citation: N/A

Interpretive Summary: Drought can cause significant socio-economic damage, such as crop yield loss and water insecurity. In this study, the authors utilized the daily Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and a recently developed potential evapotranspiration (PET) method that accounts for the impact of CO2 concentration on vegetation behavior to analyze drought severity, duration, and frequency in the future. The analysis was based on simulations from five global climate models (GCMs) under various future socioeconomic scenarios. Compared with the new PET method, the traditional PET method that does not represent CO2 impacts significantly overestimated future PET and droughts. The method presented in this study provides a useful tool for decision-makers and policymakers to design effective measures for agricultural adaptation under future drought conditions.

Technical Abstract: The future state of drought in China under climate change remains uncertain. This study investigates drought events, focusing on the Chinese region, based on simulations from five global climate models (GCMs) under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP5-8.5) participating in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3b). The daily Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is utilized to analyze drought severity, duration, and frequency of occurrence for three future periods. Evaluation of GCMs performance against observational data indicates that the selected models effectively capture climatic change across China. The conventional potential evapotranspiration (PET) algorithms may overestimate future PET in the middle and late future period under the high emission scenario, i.e., SSP5-8.5. It mainly because the rapid increase in CO2 concentration affected the vegetation behavior and slowed down the growth rate of PET. The magnitude of future droughts becoming more severe, longer in duration, and more frequent in China is small. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders in developing strategies and measures to mitigate and adapt to future drought conditions in China.